Economic Indicators (Source: Scotiabank)
Spring Has Sprung in Canada’s Job Market
Jun 5, 2026
Canada’s job market came roaring back to life in May. This is the jobs report that the Bank of Canada has been dreaming about as they will heave a big sigh of relief to see further signs of a Q2 rebound in the works. Scotia’s estimate was at the high end of consensus but even then the gain blew past all of our estimates. See chart 1 for some initial summary stats.
BOC HIKE PRICING GOT A BOOST
Markets reacted by pushing bond yields sharply higher with the Canada 2s yield up 10bps on the day in a bear flattener curve move. Markets added a bit to year-end hike pricing with about 35bps of a hike priced. It’s just one report, but rebounding growth, importing a positive commodity shock, upside risk to inflation, fiscal stimulus, and traction on trade negotiations could well give rise to our longstanding hike call this year.
The Canadian dollar is the second strongest performer among major crosses in the aftermath with only USD strength rivalling it following the large gain in nonfarm payrolls. ....     More >>

Featured Insights (Source: RBC Financial Group)
Canada’s per-capita economy still recovering
Jun 8, 2026
Canada’s consecutive contractions in gross domestic product in recent quarters sparked some concerns about whether the economy had entered a recession. We don’t back that view, nor does the C.D. Howe Institute Business Cycle Council, responsible for formally dating Canadian recessions.
A core reason for looking beyond GDP growth is the sharp swings in population growth Canada has experienced. These continue to disrupt traditional interpretations of data. Notably, the past two quarters of GDP decline both coincided with population declines—the first on record since the 1950s.
While the total pie shrank, real per-person growth has continued to expand. This matters because per-capita measures better reflect how households and workers experience the economy. Between 2023 and 2024, per-person GDP declined persistently while headline GDP was overstating economic health.
Now the opposite is true: Headline GDP looks worse than reality, while Canada’s in early-stage recovery from a soft patch that began in early 2023.
To assess the current situation objectively, we examine economic data compared to previous recessions. We found that once ....     More >>

TD - The Weekly Bottom Line - Jun 5, 2026
Canadian Highlights
- Canada’s labour market delivered a pleasant surprise in May, with employment handily beating consensus expectations and the unemployment falling to 6.6%.
- The jobs report helped quiet recession talk and prompted markets to fully price in a rate hike by the end of the year.
- Trade negotiations remain a major focus as attention shifts to next week’s trade report. Also on the deck is the Bank of Canada’s policy decision, where rates are widely expected to remain unchanged.
U.S. Highlights
- U.S. data continued to point to a resilient economy, with job growth surprising to the upside in May and broader activity holding up better than expected.
- Recent indicators suggest growth remains intact despite restrictive monetary policy.
- Markets balanced firmer U.S. data against easing global risks, keeping sentiment constructive and erasing hopes for further central bank easing.